Friday, September 08, 2006

Has Harold Ford Jr's Voting record Changed? Maybe

Let me first say that I threw this together quickly and I welcome blog peer review in picking up on data or methodological errors. I am not an excel guru and I welcome email feedback.

I was looking at the WaPo voter database cited in the post below at Harold Ford Jr's voting history and I was wondering if it showed any discernible changes related to an election year.

I put in the last 5 years of HFJr's voting record in a database (you can download my spreadsheet with all data and formulas HERE.) I looked at how many times he votes with the Dems and how many times he votes with Repubs (when the parties vote differently). Here are the results:

Percentage of the votes where
Harold Ford Jr votes with Repubs

2002 - 13.3%
2003 - 11.2%
2004 - 9.5%
2005 - 16.9%
2006 - 16.4%

For 2006 there is a upturn by Qtr

1st Qtr - 11.1%
2nd Qtr - 14.75%
3rd Qtr - 27%

Long term it looks relatively stable but the stat for 3rd Qtr is significantly larger.