Friday, October 30, 2009

Phil Bredesen is correct, Medicaid will explode


This is what the CBO says about the Pelosi Bill:
  • The scoring "does not constitute a final and comprehensive cost estimate for the bill." (page 1)
  • There are $426 billion of cost cuts to Medicare, Medicaid and other federal health programs, and $572 of tax increase revenues projected. (pages 2, 6)
  • The costs of the insurance subsidies will be $894 billion after taking into account certain assumed revenue offsets. (page 3)
  • State spending on Medicaid will increase on net by about $34 billion. (page 4)
  • 18 million non-elderly people will remain uninsured, with the percentage of coverage rising from 83% to 96%. (page 5)
  • 15 million more people will be on Medicaid. (page 6)
  • 6 million people will join the public plan option, which will charge higher rates than private insurance, due to less management of utilization by patients and an unhealthier pool of patients (page 6)
  • It will cost between $5 and $10 billion for the IRS to implement "the eligibility determination, documentation, and verification processes for subsidies." These costs are not factored into the overall estimates. (page 9)
  • The deficit will be reduced by $9 billion in 2019. (page 12)
  • The "bill would put into effect (or leave in effect) a number of procedures [such as leaving physician payment cuts in place] that might be difficult to maintain over a long period of time" and which, if not followed, would require a change in the projections. "The long-term budgetary impact of H.R. 3962 could be quite different if those provisions generating savings were ultimately changed or not fully implemented." (page 14)